A GOP PICKUP, IN NEW YORK? - AT 9:41 A.M. ET:  Now what have we here?  What we have is a finding by Rasmussen that Rudy Giuliani, if he runs for the Senate next year against incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, would defeat her by double digits.  Gillibrand was appointed by Governor David Paterson to fill out the term of Hillary Clinton, who resigned from the Senate to become secretary of state:

Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand may have a serious problem on her hands if Rudy Giuliani gets in next year’s race for the U.S. Senate in New York State.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state finds Giuliani, the former Republican mayor of New York City, leading Gillibrand by 13 points – 53% to 40%. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, and just two percent (2%) are undecided.

News reports that Giuliani has ruled out a run for governor next year and is interested In the Senate race could turn Gillibrand’s bid to fill out the rest of Hillary Clinton’s term from a close struggle to an uphill climb.

If this race happens, it will be spectacular.  However, these cautionary notes: 1)  Gillibrand, an appointed senator with very little built-in support around the state, might be pushed aside and possibly offered a post by Obama, with a more credible candidate taking her place; 2) Giuliani will be subjected to one of the greatest smear campaigns you can imagine.  He was an extraordinarily successful mayor, but he is despised by the left, a powerful force in New York and in the New York media.

There will also be underlying racial tensions.  Giuliani, through his effective and enlightened anti-crime programs, saved more black lives than all mayors of New York put together, but never got any credit from the black community.  The reason?  He refused to genuflect before black leaders.  They will be coming after him. 

There is the corruption factor:  Giuliani's last police commissioner, boosted by Giuliani to become secretary of Homeland Security, is going to prison on corruption charges.  This fact alone will give opponents a field day.

There is the personality factor:  The fact is that Giuliani, whose work I admire immensely, isn't known as a nice guy.  It sometimes comes through.  He apparently has a poor relationship with his children. 

But, bottom line, Rudy is the GOP's best shot at gaining a Senate seat in New York, if he can run a good campaign.  His campaign for president was lackluster.  He'll be running in a heavily Democratic state.  But he was elected may of New York City twice, and the city has a lopsided Democratic registration.

This, if it happens, will be a great race.

November 25, 2009